Event Probability Engine [Quantum Algo]Event Probability Engine
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🔶 OVERVIEW
Event Probability Engine is a statistical probability indicator that answers one question at the close of every bar: based on the measurable conditions active right now, what is the historical probability that price closes higher one, three, and five days from today? Instead of subjective pattern reading, the script builds and maintains a live rolling database of forward returns conditioned on eighteen observable market events — day-of-week seasonality, oversold and overbought readings, volume spikes, streaks, range position, volatility regime, pivot touches, and an optional lunar control — then pools the currently active events into a single composite probability, displayed as a TODAY headline, a full per-event statistics table, and a shaded forecast cone projected on the chart.
It is designed for the daily timeframe. On other timeframes, the one, three, and five day horizons become one, three, and five bars.
🔶 WHAT IS AN EVENT STUDY?
An event study measures what a market historically did after a defined, observable condition occurred — for example, what happened over the next five days every time the Relative Strength Index closed oversold, or every Monday, or every time volume spiked two standard deviations above normal. This indicator runs eighteen such studies continuously, in real time, on the chart's own data, and keeps every study honest with the statistical safeguards described below.
🔶 WHY THIS SCRIPT IS ORIGINAL
1. A live event database in Pine. Each of the eighteen events maintains its own rolling, capped sample of forward returns at three horizons, tagged with the market regime at the moment the event fired — a self-updating event-study framework, not a fixed backtest.
2. Shrinkage estimation. Every win rate is pulled toward fifty percent by a configurable number of pseudo-samples. An event with fifteen samples cannot display an extreme probability, because fifteen samples cannot justify one.
3. Overlap correction. State-based events (for example, an oversold reading persisting for a week) generate autocorrelated, overlapping samples that inflate apparent sample size. The effective sample size is deflated by the horizon length before any confidence calculation.
4. Wilson score bounds. Next to each five-day win rate, the table shows the Wilson confidence lower bound computed on the corrected sample size — the number an event must clear before its edge deserves trust, not its raw point estimate.
5. Regime conditioning with fallback. When enough samples exist in the current regime (bull or bear, defined by the two-hundred period exponential moving average), statistics are computed on regime-matched samples only, marked ® in the table. A bear-market Thursday is not assumed to behave like a bull-market Thursday.
6. Quality-weighted log-odds pooling. Active events are combined by weighted log-odds — a method related to Bayesian evidence combination — rather than naive win-rate averaging, so one strong, well-sampled edge is not diluted by three weak ones.
7. A built-in falsification control. Lunar phase events are included deliberately so the engine can audit a popular claim empirically: if full and new moons carry no edge, their quality scores sit near zero and they contribute nothing to the composite. A probability framework should be able to demonstrate which inputs fail, not only which appear to work.
🔶 HOW IT WORKS
Event detection: On every bar close the script evaluates all eighteen conditions — Monday through Friday, adaptive or fixed oversold and overbought thresholds, volume z-score spikes, up and down streaks, range-low and range-high position, volatility expansion and compression by percentile rank, confirmed pivot support and resistance touches within an Average True Range distance, and the optional lunar events.
Database recording: Whenever an event was active one, three, or five bars ago, the realized forward return is stored in that event's arrays, first-in-first-out at a configurable cap, together with the regime tag from the moment the event fired.
Per-event statistics: The table reports, for every event, the shrinkage-adjusted win rate at each horizon, the Wilson lower bound, sample count, average forward return, profit factor, a zero-to-one-hundred quality score blending edge magnitude, sample sufficiency, and recent consistency, and the resulting directional bias.
Composite probability: Active events passing the minimum-sample filter are pooled by quality-weighted log-odds into the TODAY headline (next-day probability of an up close with a visual meter), the one, three, and five day composite row with expected returns and a strength grade, and a projected forecast path with a shaded plus-and-minus one standard deviation cone drawn from the current close.
Chart layer: Optional regime background tint, the regime line, live pivot support and resistance rails with prices, and historical event markers on the candles so past occurrences of every event can be reviewed directly on the chart.
🔶 HOW TO USE IT
1. Apply it to a daily chart of any liquid symbol — cryptocurrency, stocks, indices, forex, gold, futures. Let it load its history; sample counts grow with available bars.
2. Read the TODAY headline first: the next-day probability, the meter, and the expected one-day return.
3. Scan the table for the highlighted rows — those events are active right now. Judge each by its Wilson lower bound and quality score, not the raw win rate.
4. Use the composite row and forecast cone as context: STRONG requires both a meaningful probability distance from fifty percent and high average quality.
5. Treat readings near fifty percent as exactly what they are: weak evidence. This engine is intentionally built to display small honest numbers rather than large misleading ones.
6. Combine with your own analysis — the engine measures conditional history; it does not know tomorrow's news.
🔶 SETTINGS
- Database: sample cap per event, minimum samples for composite inclusion, minimum regime-matched samples, shrinkage strength.
- Events: oscillator length and thresholds (fixed or adaptive percentile), volume z-score, streak length, range lookback, pivot lookback and touch distance, lunar events on or off.
- Statistics: Wilson z-score (default 1.645, a ninety percent one-sided bound).
- Display: dashboard position and five text sizes, forecast cone, regime tint, regime line, pivot rails, candle markers.
🔶 ALERTS
- Composite Bias Change — fires once per bar close whenever the five-day composite bias flips state, with the current one-day and five-day probabilities in the message.
🔶 FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Does the indicator repaint? Statistics are recorded and evaluated on closed bars, and pivot events use confirmed pivots with their standard confirmation lag. The dashboard and forecast update on the live bar by design, as a dashboard should.
Why do most probabilities sit near fifty percent? Because genuine conditional edges in daily data are small, and the shrinkage and overlap corrections are built to say so. Extreme displayed probabilities on thin samples are the signature of a dishonest tool.
What does the ® mark mean? That event currently has enough regime-matched samples, so its statistics are computed only from the current bull or bear regime rather than the full history.
Why are moon phases in a statistics tool? As a falsification control. The engine should be able to show which inputs carry no edge — and the user can watch it do exactly that.
Can I use it intraday? Yes, but the horizons become bars instead of days, and day-of-week events lose their meaning. The design intent is the daily timeframe.
🔶 CREDITS
This script stands on standard, publicly documented statistical methods, gratefully credited: the Wilson score interval by Edwin B. Wilson (1927), Laplace-style shrinkage estimation, and the event-study methodology long established in quantitative finance. Their combination into a live, regime-conditional, overlap-corrected event database with quality-weighted log-odds composite pooling, implemented entirely in Pine Script with capped arrays and user-defined types, is original work — no third-party or open-source script code was reused.
🔶 LIMITATIONS
Probabilities derived from historical conditioning are estimates, not guarantees, and conditional edges in daily data are typically small. Sample databases need history to mature; young charts produce thin, heavily shrunk statistics by design. Day-of-week events assume a five-day session calendar. Regime conditioning depends on the two-hundred period regime definition. This is a research and confluence tool, not a standalone trading system.
🔶 DISCLAIMER
This script is provided strictly for educational and informational purposes. It is not financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past statistical behavior does not assure future results. Trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own research and manage risk independently. Indicator
Worldwide EventsAn indicator that overlays key historical events directly on the price chart — from 1940 to the present day.
📅 Historical events — from World War II to modern crises and conflicts
📈 Plotted directly on the chart — see how the market reacted to each event
🎨 Color-coded categories — 🔴 High priority / 🟠 Medium priority / 🟡 Low priority
🔍 Date tooltip — hover over an event to see its date without cluttering the chart
⚙️ One-click filters — show only the categories you care about
🕰️ History going back to 1940 — Pearl Harbor, Black Monday, Lehman Brothers
💥 Financial crises — FTX, SVB, COVID crash, 2008 crisis
🌐 Geopolitics — wars, attacks, sanctions, oil embargoes
🏦 Monetary policy — every pivotal Fed and ECB decision on the timeline
🔄 Continuously updated — Liberation Day 2025, US-China tariffs, Iran
⚡ Zero configuration — works immediately after adding to the chart
🆓 Open source — full code available and modifiable
Event descriptions are available in the following languages:
🇬🇧 English (EN) (default)
🇵🇱 Polish (PL)
Source code is available here: github.com
Author: Piotr Kowalski "piecioshka"
Released: 2026-03-02 Indicator
Indicator
WASDE Dates V2WASDE Dates V2 – USDA Release Calendar with Alerts, Countdown & Event Markers
By cot-trader.com
WASDE Dates V2 is a complete and reliable visualization tool for all scheduled WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) releases for 2025 and 2026.
The USDA’s WASDE report is one of the most market-moving fundamental catalysts in agricultural futures—affecting Corn (ZC), Wheat (ZW), Soybeans (ZS), Soymeal (ZM), Soybean Oil (ZL), and many related CFD products.
This script gives traders a precise timing layer directly inside their PulseWire charts.
🔍 What this script does
WASDE Dates V2 automatically:
Marks each WASDE release day with a vertical line and label.
Shows an automated countdown to the next WASDE release:
In days (>24h)
In hours & minutes (<24h)
Displays an optional table of upcoming WASDE dates for quick reference.
Provides two alert conditions:
WASDE Day Alert – triggers exactly on the event
WASDE 24h Reminder – pre-alert when less than 24 hours remain
Handles both 2025 and 2026 confirmed dates.
Works on any symbol and timeframe.
📌 Why WASDE matters
The WASDE report updates global supply and demand estimates for:
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Other major agricultural commodities
Changes in yield, acres, production, imports/exports, and ending stocks can cause immediate and significant volatility.
Many traders combine WASDE awareness with seasonality, COT positioning, volatility filters, or fundamental models.
This script ensures you never miss the timing of these key releases.
⚙️ How the script works
The script stores official USDA WASDE release dates for 2025 and 2026 in two dedicated arrays.
On every bar, it compares the bar’s timestamp with known WASDE timestamps to detect an event day.
When an event occurs:
A red “WASDE” label is plotted above the candle
A dotted vertical line is drawn through the bar
It finds the next upcoming WASDE by scanning forward through both arrays.
A live-updating countdown label is displayed, showing days or hours/minutes until release.
If the event is less than 24 hours away:
A yellow “WASDE soon” warning appears near price
The 24h alert condition becomes active
An optional table lists upcoming events for 2025 & 2026.
This script does not generate trading signals.
It provides a time-based event layer designed to complement any discretionary or algorithmic trading approach.
🧭 How to use
Add the script to your chart.
Enable alerts for:
“WASDE Day Alert”
“WASDE 24h Reminder”
Follow the countdown to prepare for upcoming volatility.
Use together with other agricultural tools such as:
Seasonality indicators
COT (Commitment of Traders) analysis
Trend / VWAP / Volume signals
Pre- and post-WASDE trading strategies
Works on all chart types, all symbols, and all timeframes.
📅 Included WASDE Dates (Confirmed)
2025:
Jan 12, Feb 11, Mar 11, Apr 10, May 12, Jun 12, Jul 11, Aug 12, Sep 12, Oct 9, Nov 10, Dec 9
2026:
Jan 12, Feb 10, Mar 10, Apr 9, May 12, Jun 11, Jul 10, Aug 12, Sep 11, Oct 9, Nov 10, Dec 10
(All dates based on USDA’s official 12:00pm ET schedule.)
💡 What makes this script original
Fully updated 2025 + 2026 calendar
Uses a robust time-comparison method for accurate marking
Unique dual alert system (event + 24h pre-alert)
Clean, readable layout with countdown + upcoming dates table
Tailored specifically for grain & agricultural traders
Built entirely in Pine Script v6 with careful attention to performance Indicator
Vertical Time Marker Configurable (VTMC)# Vertical Time Marker Configurable (VTMC)
## Overview
The Vertical Time Marker Configurable (VTMC) is a powerful PineScript v6 indicator designed to help traders quickly identify key market times across their entire chart history. Instead of hovering over candles to check timestamps, VTMC draws clear vertical lines with customizable labels at your specified times, making it easy to spot important market sessions, news events, or personal trading windows at a glance.
## Key Features
### ⏰ Flexible Time Selection
- Set any time using an intuitive time picker (defaults to 8:30 AM Central Time)
- Automatically draws lines at your specified time across all historical data
- Perfect for marking market opens, closes, news releases, or personal trading times
### 🎨 Full Visual Customization
- **Line Color**: Choose any color (defaults to white for maximum visibility)
- **Line Style**: Solid, dashed, or dotted options
- **Line Width**: Adjustable from 1-10 pixels
- **Opacity Control**: Precise opacity slider (0-100%) for both line and text
### 🏷️ Smart Text Labels
- **Preset Options**: New York Open, New York Close, London Open, London Close, Asia Open, Asia Close
- **Custom Labels**: Enter any text for personalized marking (news events, trading windows, etc.)
- **Configurable Text**: Adjustable size (8-20px), color, and opacity
- **Smart Positioning**: Text appears just above the price action for clear visibility
### 📊 Professional Display
- Lines extend fully from top to bottom of chart
- Clean, non-intrusive design that doesn't clutter your analysis
- Works on any timeframe and market
- Historical lines persist across all chart data
## Perfect For
### Market Session Traders
- Mark key session opens and closes
- Identify overlap periods between major markets
- Track session-specific price behavior patterns
### News Traders
- Mark important economic releases (FOMC, NFP, etc.)
- Create visual reminders for scheduled events
- Track market reaction patterns around news times
### Institutional Flow Traders
- Identify key institutional activity times
- Mark order block formation periods
- Track smart money movement windows
### Personal Trading Systems
- Mark your optimal trading hours
- Create visual discipline for trading windows
- Track performance during specific time periods
## Why VTMC?
Unlike hardcoded session indicators that only work for specific markets, VTMC gives you complete flexibility to mark ANY time that matters to your trading strategy. Whether you're tracking "MY Trading Window" from 9:30-10:30 AM or marking custom news events, VTMC adapts to your specific needs.
The indicator eliminates the constant need to hover over candles to check times, instead providing instant visual reference points across your entire chart. This makes pattern recognition, backtesting, and trade timing significantly more efficient.
## Usage Tips
- Use multiple instances for different time zones or events
- Combine with other indicators for comprehensive market timing
- Customize colors to match your chart theme
- Use custom labels for personalized trading reminders
*Built with precision in PineScript v6 for reliable performance and modern PulseWire compatibility.* Indicator
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Recessions & crises shading (custom dates & stats)Shades your chart background to flag events such as crises or recessions, in similar fashion to what you see on FRED charts. The advantage of this indicator over others is that you can quickly input custom event dates as text in the menu to analyse their impact for your specific symbol. The script automatically labels, calculates and displays the peak to through percentage corrections on your current chart.
By default the indicator is configured to show the last 6 US recessions. If you have custom events which will benefit others, just paste the input string in the comments below so one can simply copy/paste in their indicator.
Example event input (No spaces allowed except for the label name. Enter dates as YYYY-MM-DD.)
2020-02-01,2020-03-31,COVID-19
2007-12-01,2009-05-31,Subprime mortgages
2001-03-01,2001-10-30,Dot-com bubble
1990-07-01,1991-03-01,Oil shock
1981-07-01,1982-11-01,US unemployment
1980-01-01,1980-07-01,Volker
1973-11-01,1975-03-01,OPEC Indicator
Economic Calendar EventsThis indicator provides an overlay of Events on the main chart, where each Event is visually represented by a Label and vertical Line, placed at the specified time interval for each Event.
Events are defined by user data as an input string on the settings widget panel for the indicator. The event data is a string (semicolon delimited) whose grammar is a representation of a collection of Event records, where each Event record is a comma-separated list of fields, which correspond to:
The name of the event.
The symbol or ticker to which the Event applies (or `*` if it should apply to all ticklers).
The timezone and then the year, month, day, hour, and minute of the event, respectively.
Each Event record is separated by the semicolon ";" character.
As an example , assume `evantData` is the string:
"SVB,*,UTC,2023,03,10,00,00;US CPI,*,UTC,2023,04,12,08,30;ETH Shanghai,ETHUSD,UTC,2023,04,12,08,30"
In the above case, there are 4 Events defined, three of which apply to all tickers and one applies only to ETHUSD, as follows:
The first event is named SVB and applies to all tickers at UTC time on March 10, 2023 at 12:00:00.
The second event is named US CPI and applies to all tickers at UTC time on April 12, 2023 at 08:30:00.
The third event is named ETH Shanghai and applies to the ETHUSD ticker at UTC time on April 12, 2023 at 08:30:00.
The fourth event is named FOMC Rates and applies to all tickers at UTC time on May 3, 2023 at 14:00:00.
The following is a BNF for defining event data:
market-events ::= event-record | event-record ";" market-events
event-record ::= event-name "," ticker ”,” event-timezone "," event-time
event-name ::= string
event-time>::= year "," month "," day "," hour "," minute
event-timezone ::= string
ticker ::= "*" | string
string ::= +
year ::= {4}
month ::= {2}
day ::= {2}
hour ::= {2}
minute ::= {2}
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