SUMMIT - Adaptive Top-Risk CompositeThis is an extremely comprehensive market top risk indicator that uses 35+ different metrics and does a whole swath of statistical analysis to gauge risk.
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Crash
Hidden Markov Model Market Regimes [LuxAlgo]The Hidden Markov Model Market Regimes tool provides a probabilistic framework for identifying the current state of the market by applying a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to price action and volatility data.
🔶 USAGE
The indicator identifies four distinct market regimes. Each regime is represented by a unique color, and the oscillator values (0-100%) represent the probability of the market being in that specific state.
🔹 Regime Breakdown & Trading Implications
Low Volatility Trend (Gray): Characterized by steady, consistent returns with minimal price swings. Ideal for trend-following strategies and "buy-and-hold" positions.
High Volatility Chop (Orange): Large price swings without a clear directional trend. Suggests a "risk-off" environment or mean-reversion strategies.
Crash Regime (Red): Extreme negative returns coupled with a spike in volatility. Indicates high panic; traders may look for hedging opportunities.
Accumulation (Blue): Low volatility with neutral-to-rounding price action. Often occurs at the end of a bear cycle, signaling a potential "bottom-fishing" zone.
🔹 Visual Cues
The indicator features background highlighting that changes based on the "Dominant State" (the state with the highest current probability).
When a specific probability line crosses above the 50% "Neutral" line, the model is gaining conviction. Crosses above 80% indicate "High Confidence" in that regime. Users should watch for "probability flips," where one regime's dominance is rapidly overtaken by another, signaling a structural shift in the market.
🔶 DETAILS
The script implements a specialized version of the Forward Algorithm to estimate the likelihood of hidden states.
🔹 Heuristic vs. Trained ML
It is important to note that this indicator is accurately described as a "Heuristic" or "Static" HMM rather than a traditional Machine Learning model. Unlike modern ML models that require extensive training on historical datasets (using algorithms like Baum-Welch or Expectation-Maximization), this model uses fixed mathematical parameters and predefined heuristic-based emission profiles.
This approach ensures deterministic behavior—the model will always react to the same price patterns in the same way—and eliminates the "black box" nature of traditional ML while still providing the probabilistic benefits of a Markov chain.
🔹 Mathematical Logic
Log Returns: The model utilizes log returns ( TSX:LN (Close_{t} / Close_{t-1})$) rather than simple percentage changes to ensure time-additivity and a more symmetric distribution of data.
Emission Likelihoods: The model uses Gaussian-style probability density functions to compare normalized returns and volatility against "ideal" profiles for each state. For example, the Crash Regime likelihood increases when returns are significantly below the mean and volatility is significantly above the mean.
Transition Matrix (Markov Property): This defines the "memory" of the system. The matrix is weighted toward "persistence" (diagonal values), meaning the market is statistically more likely to stay in its current regime than to jump to a different one every bar.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 HMM Settings
Lookback Period: The window used to calculate the mean and standard deviation for normalizing returns and volatility.
Learning Rate: Controls how quickly the model updates its internal probabilities. Range: 0.01 (very slow/stable) to 1.0 (instant/reactive).
🔹 Dashboard
Enable Dashboard: Toggles the visibility of the on-screen information table.
Position: Determines where the dashboard is anchored (Top Right, Bottom Right, or Bottom Left).
Size: Adjusts the scale of the dashboard text and cells.
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Crash Prevention OpenSource by exp3rtsOpen Source Version - no updates!
Crash Prevention OpenSource by exp3rts – Automated Exit Strategy for PulseWire
This indicator allows you to automatically close positions based on dynamic price levels derived from the previous candle with a configurable offset. Perfect for risk management and automated “hard stop” exits.
Key Features:
Flexible Exit Directions: Choose to trigger exits for Long, Short, or Both directions.
Dynamic Exit Levels: Lines are automatically calculated above/below the previous candle plus/minus a user-defined offset in points.
Visual Cues: Clear arrows indicate the exact bar where price touched the exit line.
Session-Independent: Works on any chart and timeframe without manual adjustments.
Webhook Alerts: Sends JSON alerts on touch, enabling integration with external systems or bots.
Auto-Close Logic: Ensures positions are closed immediately when the threshold is breached, keeping trades in check.
How it works:
For Long exits, the line is drawn below the previous bar’s low minus the offset.
For Short exits, the line is drawn above the previous bar’s high plus the offset.
When price crosses the line, the position is closed, an arrow is plotted on the chart, and an alert is fired.
Ideal for traders who want strict stop management or automated exit conditions while keeping visual clarity on the chart.
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Bitcoin Events HistoryWith this tool, you can travel back to Bitcoin’s very first price quote and retrace its entire history directly on your chart. Major events are plotted as labels or markers, providing context for how significant moments shaped Bitcoin’s journey.
Key Features
Comprehensive Event Coverage: From Bitcoin’s inception to the most recent updates.
Custom View: Change label colors, styles, sizes, and fonts using the script’s settings.
Regular Updates: New events are added regularly to keep the history current.
Replay History
Use Bar Replay Mode to step through Bitcoin’s price history and see events unfold in sequence.
Follow the on-screen instructions for a more immersive experience.
Community Contributions
If you notice a significant event missing or misplaced on a particular date, feel free to leave a comment! Your suggestions will be considered for the next update.
To all Bitcoin enthusiasts, traders, and anyone eager to explore the history of cryptocurrency from its inception, I hope you enjoy this indicator :)
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Cryptos Pump Hunter[liwei666]🔥 Cryptos Pump Hunter captured high volatility symbols in real-time, Up to 40 symbols can be monitored at same time.
Help you find the most profitable symbol with excellent visualization.
🔥 Indicator Design logic
🎯 The core pump/dump logic is quite simple
1. calc past bars highest and lowest High price, get movement by this formula
" movement = (highest - lowest) / lowest * 100 "
2. order by 'movement' value descending, you will get a volatility List
3. use Table tool display List, The higher the 'movement', the higher the ranking.
🔥 Settings
🎯 2 input properties impact on the results, 2 input impact on display effects, others look picture below.
pump_bars_cnt : lookback bar to calc pump/dump
resolution for pump : 1min to 1D
show_top1 : when ranking list top1 change, will draw a label
show pump : when symbol over threhold, draw a pump lable
🔥 How TO USE
🎯 only trade high volatility symbols
1. focus on top1 symbol on Table panel at top-right postion, trading symbols at label in chart.
2. Short when 'postion' ~ 0, Long when 'postion' ~ 1 on Table Cell
🎯 Monitor the symbols you like
1. 100+ symbols added in script, cancel remarks in code line if symbol is your want
2. add 1 line code if symbol not exist. if you want monitor 'ETHUSDTPERP ', then add
" ETHUSDTPERP = create_symbol_obj('BINANCE:ETHUSDTPERP'), array.unshift(symbol_a, ETHUSDTPERP ) "
🎯 Alert will be add soon, any questions or suggestion please comment below, I would appreciate it greatly.
Hope this indicator will be useful for you :)
enjoy! 🚀🚀🚀
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Market Crashes/Chart Timeframes HighlightThis extremely helpful indicator allows you to highlight 7 custom date-based timeframes on your charts.
The default dates selected are what I consider to be the most significant 7 most recent market declines, including and since the 87 flash crash.
Note: The default dates are approximate but good enough to highlight the key timeframes of these pullbacks/crashes/corrections.
It's simple to use and does exactly what it should.
I created this indicator to make it easier when looking at the overall story of a chart. I found it helpful to highlight these areas to see how a market or equity has responded during these significant market pullbacks.
The highlight alone I’ve found helpful, and it becomes more powerful if you combine it with your own trusted trade system.
Also, to get the most out of using the default dates it’s important to understand the narrative behind each pullback/crash. Here’s the list of what I consider significant pullbacks:
Black Monday - Oct 87
1990s Recession - Jul 90 to Mar 91
Dot Com Bubble - 2000 to 2002 or so
Real Estate 2008 Crisis - I choose 2007-2009 to cover full insider knowledge and aftermath
2016 - 2018 - This isn't seen as a pullback, but I have it as significant because in many markets and equities, this was an almost equal percentage pullback as 2008. See Notes below
2020 Crash - Covid-19 and related shenanigans pullback
April 2021 to August 2022 - I believe we are in a current SHORT cycle so I've highlighted April 2021 as the start of what might be the start of a major decline testing Dot Com or lower levels.
A few notes on the above.
You'll find on most of the pullbacks listed above most equities and related markets behave similarly or have similar patterns.
The 2016-18 pullback is the most difficult to track. For instance, GE in this timeframe had a -80% decline, whereas BA depending on how you want to measure it had a 50-110% gain.
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HPK Crash IndicatorFrom Hari P. Krishnan's book, The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting after a Market Sell-Off :
"We start by specifying the year on year (YoY) change in the index. Next, we calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of the YoY returns. We also calculate the 5 year trailing Z score of 1 month historical volatility for the index, using daily returns. Our crisis warning indicator flashes if both Z scores are above 2. In other words, recent price increases and current volatility need to be at least 2 standard deviations above normal.
It can be seen that this basic implementation is reasonably effective, accepting that the effective sample set is small. A false signal is given in mid-2006, but the signal is quickly washed away. The remaining signals occur fairly close to the point of collapse. The idea that elevated volatility is predictive of danger is not new and underpins many asset allocation schemes. However, Sornette deserves credit for moving away from a largely valuation-based approach to predicting crises to one that relies upon price action itself."
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VIX - SKEW DivergenceThe CBOE VIX is a well-known index representing market expectations for volatility over the next 30 days.
The CBOE SKEW is an index reflecting the perceived tail risk over the next 30 days.
When the SKEW rises over a certain level (~140/150), that means investors are hedging their exposure with options, because they are worried about an incoming market crash or a "black swan". If that happens when the VIX is very low and apparently there is no uncertainty, this can warn of a sudden change in direction of the market. You will see for yourself that an increasing divergence often anticipates a sharp fall of leading stock indexes, usually within two to four months.
This is probably not very relevant for the short-term trader but mid/long-term traders and market analysts may find it useful to clearly visualize the extent of the distance between the VIX and the SKEW. For that reason, I wrote this highly customizable script with which you can plot the two indexes and fill the space within them with a color gradient to highlight the maximum and minimum divergence. Additionally, you can fill the beneath VIX area with four different colors. It is also possible to plot the divergence value itself, so if you want you can draw trendlines and support/resistance levels on it.
Please note that the divergence per se doesn't predict anything and it's meant to be used synergistically with other technical analysis tools.
More informations here:
www.cboe.com
www.cboe.com
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HODL LINE [AstrideUnicorn]This indicator determines periods of bull market when a buy-and-hold investor can hold the asset, and bear market periods when they should avoid holding it. Though it was designed primarily with cryptocurrencies in mind, it can be successfully used for any market.
Technically, the indicator is an asymmetric trend filter aimed to account for the fact that market sell-offs tend to be sharper than up-trends. The algorithm has two regimes – with and without price smoothing.
HOW TO USE
The step-like line is the main trend filter. It is colored green in an uptrend and red in a downtrend. When the smoothing is on, in addition to the trend filter, the indicator plots a purple line. It is a Hull Moving Average (HMA) of the price. In this case, the indicator uses this line instead of the price to find crossings with the trend filter.
When the price or the smoothed line crosses the trend filter above, it is an uptrend signal. The indicator marks such crossings with green circles. It also colors the chart background green in an uptrend. The price or the purple line crossing the trend filter below means a downtrend signal. Downtrend signals show as red circles. The chart background in a downtrend turns red.
SETTINGS
Sensitivity – a dropdown list that allows the user to choose an averaging period of the indicator. Users can select a value for sensitivity from a predetermined set that better suits their investment horizon.
Use Smoothing – turns on and off smoothing of the price with HMA. With the smoothing turned on, the indicator responds slower to price changes, but at the same time produces less amount of false signals.
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Price Target Pullback Correction or BearPrice Target percent drop is an indicator that allows you to set default percentage down from the 52 week high.
A pullback, correction, bear and a bear market is marked as a 5%, 10%, 20% or 40% drop from the 52 week highest price, so this will show the target price to buy at if these thresholds are hit.
You can change the default values of 5%, 10%, 20% and 40% to any percentage and the price will reflect the change of the default value. Furthermore, the default to use 52 weeks can be changed to find the highest price from the last 26 weeks or 104 weeks.
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Levels Of Fear [AstrideUnicorn]"Buy at the level of maximum fear when everyone is selling." - says a well-known among traders wisdom. If an asset's price declines significantly from the most recent highest value or established range, traders start to worry. The higher the drawdown gets, the more fear market participants experience. During a sell-off, a feedback loop arises, in which the escalating fear and price decline strengthen each other.
The Levels Of Fear indicator helps analyze price declines and find the best times to buy an asset after a sell-off. In finance, volatility is a term that describes the degree of variation of an asset price over time. It is usually denoted by the letter σ (sigma) and estimated as the standard deviation of the asset price or price returns. The Levels Of Fear indicator helps measure the current price decline in the standard deviation units. It plots seven levels at distances of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 standard deviations (sigmas) below the base price (the recent highest price or upper bound of the established range). In what follows, we will refer to these levels as levels of fear.
HOW TO USE
When the price in its decline reaches a certain level of fear, it means that it has declined from its recent highest value by a corresponding number of standard deviations. The indicator helps traders see the minimum levels to which the price may fall and estimate the potential depth of the current decline based on the cause of the actual market shock. Five-seven sigma declines are relatively rare events and correspond to significant market shocks. In the lack of information, 5-7 sigma levels are good for buying an asset. Because when the price falls that deep, it corresponds to the maximum fear and pessimism in the market when most people are selling. In such situations, contrarian logic becomes the best decision.
SETTINGS
Window: the averaging window or period of the indicator. The algorithm uses this parameter to calculate the base level and standard deviations. Higher values are better for measuring deeper and longer declines.
Levels Stability: the parameter used in the decline detection. The higher the value is, the more stable and long the fear levels are, but at the same time, the lag increases. The lower it is, the faster the indicator responds to the price changes, but the fear levels are recalculated more frequently and are less stable. This parameter is mostly for fine-tuning. It does not change the overall picture much.
Mode: the parameter that defines the style for the labels. In the Cool Guys Mode , the indicator displays the labels as emojis. In the Serious Guys Mode , labels show the distance from the base level measured in standard deviation units or sigmas.
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Bitcoin Daily Support/ResistanceA new indicator for pulsewire.
Indicator Overview
The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Note: the x5 multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit.
Why This Happens
As Bitcoin is adopted, it moves through market cycles. These are created by periods where market participants are over-excited causing the price to over-extend, and periods where they are overly pessimistic where the price over-contracts. Identifying and understanding these periods can be beneficial to the long term investor.
This tool is a simple and effective way to highlight those periods
MA 50/100/150 was historically good support and resistance. When we cross them we have a new trend that is established.
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Percent Drop from Highest HighBuy and hold investors may decide to use trailing stops to protect profits and capital from market crashes, especially during bull markets.
The purpose of this indicator is to hep investors to identify a location to place them. The indicator plots the highest high from 'x' bars ago. It then plots a trailing stop loss 'y' percent below that line.
The indicator enables its users to input different 'x' and 'y' values to observe what they think works best for them in different markets.
Users might choose to pair the indicator with trend confirming indicators, such as moving average cross overs, to determine that the market is trending and not ranging.
There is no magic in this indicator, only maths. Like every indicator, it has no ability to predict anything. Just because the market is doing one thing now, it might do something different later. The past does not equal the present nor the future. Make your own decisions and be responsible for them.
All the best to you and your family.
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Bitcoin Worse DaysHello, here is a simple script to scan for BTC worse days.
In input you tell the script what are the minimum percent drops to look for.
By default it is 0.3, here I set it at 0.25 or it would not show anything except the 12 March (which is 40.07%).
The indicator has a precision of 1% I think.
It does not look at how low the body closed, it will show all days that closed below where they opened looking at how far below the high of the day the low was.
It can also work on any timeframe.
Here were the previous worse days from the late 2017 crash start of the bear market:
You could modify the script and look for the worse bodies with open - close instead of high - low
You could also add a filter to only look at days where the body is > 90% the whole candle (in this case it's got to be about 99%)
We can look back at BTC past a bit
Every bear market started with a large drop so we can expect...
As you can see we can look at the weekly chart too:
I won't lie, I am pretty happy. Russia, China bat eating community, and Greta were a big help. Thanks guys.
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Hindenburg Omen [QuantNomad]New record highs is good time to look at a market crash indicators )
This is a Hindenburg Omen indicator.
The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that under normal conditions, securities are either making new 52-week highs or 52-week lows. The abnormality would be if both were occurring at the same time. According to the Hindenburg Omen, an occurrence such as this is considered to be a harbinger of impending danger for a stock market. The signal typically occurs during an uptrend, where new highs are expected and new lows are rare, suggesting that the market is becoming nervous and indecisive, traits that often lead to a bear market.
For it to be on 4 conditions should be satisfied:
1. Number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market are greater than a threshold (2.2% for example).
2. Positive recent trend. Index > index
3. The McClellan Oscillator (MCO) is negative.
4. 52-week highs cannot be more than two times the 52-week lows.
You can read more about the indicator on Investopedia:
www.investopedia.com
Based on indicator created by @Boombotcom:
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Cash in/Cash out Report (CICO) - Quiets market noiseThe cash in/cash out report (CICO for short) was built with the intent to quiet the market noise. The blunt way to say it, this indicator quiets the market manipulators voice and helps the retail investor make more money. I believe money is better of in the 99% hands versus the greedy hoarding that is currently going on. There are dozens of companies in the SP500 that have the same tax rate as unborn babies, nada. These hoarders also have machine learning high frequency trading bots that purposely create fear and anxiety in the markets. When all of the major markets move at the exact same time of day on frequent occasions, I see red flags. I recommend looking into Authorized participants in the ETF market to understand how the markets can be manipulated, specifically Creation and Redemption.
Enough of my rant. This indicator is open source. Directions on how to use the indicator can be found within the code. The basic summary is, clear your charts to bare minimums. Make the colors gray on all candles. Then apply this indicator. The indicator will color the "buy" and "sell" signals on the chart. Keep in mind, markets are manipulated to create fear in the retail investors little heart and can change drastically at any second. This indicator will show real time changes in running sum into and out of the market, it is estimated by average prices and not exact.
Once the chart is all greyed out and the indicator is applied you will see an area colored red and green. What this indicator does is takes a running sum of the new money into and out of the market. It takes the average of the high and low price times the volume. If the price is going up the value is positive, going down will be negative. Then the running sum is displayed. The area section is the running sum and the column bars are each value. When a market is steadily increasing in value you will see the large green area grow. When markets shift, values and display will change in color and vector. Full descriptions are available within the script in the comment sections.
I hope this help you make more money. If this helps you grow profits, give it a like!
Happy investing 99%er!
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After Hours Daytime - Consistency
Use only on Daily charts!!
When average AH moves are consistent with average daytime moves it tends to indicate a trend. The phenomenon is not obvious on a day to day basis but is easy to see with the smoothed changes.
Blue is smoothed daytime change and black is smoothed AH gap. The length is how many periods back to start the differentiation between AH and daytime.
Pink background shows BOTH smoothed AH and daytime changes are falling.
Lime background indicates both are rising.
When used on NYA with parameters shown the indicator give warnings with high specificity and reliability for the broader
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Hindenburg Omen - CleanThe Hindenburg Omen, is market breadth signal that marks when a critical set of market factors that can create the necessary conditions for a stock market crash.
Based on Technical Breadth Indicators of the NYSE, a broad equity market index.
More information on the conditions of the Hindenburg Omen can be found here,
en.wikipedia.org
www.investopedia.com
Please use at your own discretion.
If you find my work useful, my BTC tip jar is @ 1JSKKkqWCArgyqsZUQEdVYEYBbTGhw8sDp
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