Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Altcoins capitalization histogram [peregringlk]This script superseeds "Other altcoins BTC capitalization histogram". The previous versions was a bit confusing in my opinion and lacked some generalization, so I'm now publishing this improved version.
It shows 6 pieces of info:
- Green columns: BTC price change for that day.
- Red bars: Altcoins capitalization change for that day, measured in bitcoins (altcoins_USD_capitalization / BTCUSD)
- Green/red background: green if that day the USD capitalization change was a gain, and red if it was a loss.
- Green line: accum BTC price change for the selected last days.
- Red line: accum altcoin capitalization change measured in BTC for the selected days.
- Dotted blue sequence: accum altcoin USD capitalization change for the selected days.
The base line of the histogram is 1 instead of 0, because I'm showing the price changes as multipliers (price change rates), so if there have been a +20% market movement, the calculated value will be 1.2, and if there have been a -20% market movement, then the value will be 0.8. 1 means no movement (preserved price/capitalization). Price and capitalization changes will be calculated using candle closes.
About the accumulated price changes, it will calculate the accumulated multiplication of the corresponding price change multipliers. For example, if you have set you want 3 days for the accumulation rates, and the last three days saw a -20%, +10% and +15% price/capitalization changes, the current value for the line will be 0.8*1.1*1.15 = 1.0120, or a +1.2% price change respect to the day before yesterday.
By default, if you are looking any ALTBTC market (for example, ETHBTC), instead of showing the USD and BTC capitalization of all alts, it will take the BTC and USD prices of the current market (the USD price will be calculated as ALTBTC * BTCUSD; and the BTCUSD price will be taken from BITSTAMP, the one with the longest BTC history I know in pulsewire). If you are looking any other markets that is not paired with BTC, then it will take the USD capitalization of all altcoins, and the BTC capitalization will be calculated as altcoins_USD_capitalization / BTCUSD (from BITSTAMP as well).
Also, remember that, in both cases (alts capitalization or price), the graph will consistently respect the following rule:
- btc_usd_price_change * alt/capitalization_btc_price_change = alt_usd_price_change.
That applies for both the green/red bars respect to the background, and the green/red line respect to the blue dotted sequence.
Lastly, you may want to know if, in case btc price and altbtc price or capitalization go in opposite directions, who gain the battle? For example, if BTCUSD moved +20%, and an ALTBTC price moved -20%, the result is a loss, because 1.2*0.8 = 0.96, so the ALTUSD price or capitalization moved -4% (remember that, for preserving the USD value, if today's bitcoin change rate is x, the altbtc change rate must be 1/x; so for a -20% BTCUSD price movement, there must be at least a +25% ALTBTC price change to don't loss USD value, because 1/0.8 = 1.25). The background is what shows you that: if the background is green, it means that for that day there was a total USD gain of value, and when it's red, then it was a loss of USD value.
You can customize the following things:
- Accum change rate interval: the "selected days". By default 7.
- Take alts-capitalization?: By default unmarked. The effect when is unmarked is what I have explained in the previous paragraph. If you mark it, then it will use the USD_capitalization of all alts no matter what market you are looking right now.
- Which capitalization do you want? There are three options, that applies when "Take alts-capitalization?" is marked, or otherwise, when you are not looking a BTC-paired market.
- - - All-alts (default option): take CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 security as reference Alts-capitalization, which represents all altcoins.
- - - Other-alts: take CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS security as reference Alts-capitalization, which represents all altcoin except the 9 most capitalized alts.
- - - Big-alts: take CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 - CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS as reference Alts-capitalization, which represenst only the 9 most capitalized alts.
The idea of this script is:
A) Figuring out what is causing a USD value gain or loss, the alts market movements, or the BTC price change. So you can spot if some altcoin, or all altcoins combined, are gaining or loosing value by themselves or because of bitcoin.
B) Trying to spot or discover some patterns that allows you to identify altseasons. Once an altseason has been developed, the chart will show it in a pretty obvious way (massive red line bells and dotted blue lines with very high values during a period of various weeks). The hard problem is to spot it in advance, and maybe this graph can help.
Indicator
Indicator
Other altcoins BTC capitalization histogram [peregringlk]Introduction
==========
This study is intented to be used in combination with my other study "Other alts compensated cap". Read its description, in particular, it's rationale, to understand why I have removed the big capitalized altcoins from these studies.
The middle indicator in the image is that other study, while the indicator in the buttom of the image is that one.
It shows, in form of histogram, the BTC capitalization change rate (per candle, using closes) of the "OTHERS" altcoins together with the inverse of the BTCUSD price change rate per candle.
NOTE: I call the change rate to the multiplier factor of price from bar to bar. For example, a change rate of 1.20 means +20% respect to "yesterday", and a change rate of 0.80 means -20%.
The idea is to know what are altcoin markets (against BTC) doing after each BTC price change.
Definitions
=========
I will use ALT from now one as the name of an index or fictional coin that represents the average price of all other altcoins combined. I'll use then ALTUSD to represent the price against USD of such fictional coin (= the OTHERS capitalization, as if the USD capitalization of altcoins were the USD price of ALT), and ALTBTC to represent the same price but against BTC (calculated by taking ALTUSD/BITSTAMP:BTCUSD; the choosing of BITSTAMP is because it's the market with a longer history in pulsewire).
Since I use the "OTHERS" security, I cannot know the real altcoin index so I can only estimate by using the capitalization. CIX100 could be a solution, but it is too recent in time as to inspect past price actions.
Description
=========
For example, let's assume BTCUSD decreases by 20% today. It would cause a fall in ALTUSD of 20% (just maths). So, what should it happen in ALTBTC to preserve the original ALTUSD price? People should buy alts in BTC markets by a factor of 1/0.8 = 1.25. Or in other words, unless there are a +25% grow in ALTBTC, ALTUSD would see a decrease in value.
This is what the histogram shows. The red columns shows the ALTBTC change rate per candle, while each green column shows what is the required change rate in ALTBTC required to preserve its ALTUSD value (capitalization). In other words, the green columns are the "targets" to preserve USD capitalization in ALTBTC, while the red histogram shows the actual changes.
Also, it shows two curves. There are just the change rate accumulation during some customizable interval (the same for both lines, and 7 by default; or the "week" for daily candles).
The green line is the accumulated "target" change rate within that period of time (the accumulated product of the last `interval` change rates), and the red line is the actual change rate for the same `interval` candles.
Interpretation
============
If red column values are bigger than the green ones (green column is negative, and red column is positive; or both are positives but the red one "put outs", or both are negative but the red column doesn't "put out"), OTHERS USD capitalization has increased.
If red column values are lower than the green ones (green column is positive and red column is negative; or both are positives but the red one doesn't "put out"; or both are negative but the red column "put outs"), OTHERS USD capitalization has decreased.
The same for the continuous lines: if the red line is above the green one, OTHERS USD capitalization has increased during "the past week". Otherwise, it has decreased.
The added value of this indicator is that it allows you to know "why". For example, if a green column is positive, and its corresponding red column is positive as well, but below the green one, the capitalization has decreased but BECAUSE the btc price has fallen, not because there was a sellof in alts. Actually, there was some buys (the ALTBTC price increased); it just it was not enough to counteract the btc fall.
That can be clearly seen in the remarked candle in the plot, the "coronavirus" sellof. The BTCUSD fall was huge (the hugest in BTC history), and the green column is telling you that to preserve the capitalization a lot of buys were required. However, that didn't happen. Actually, the OTHER alts were pretty quiet (the red column is tiny), causing a massive indirect loss of capitalization.
Also, with the curves, you can know if there was a total gainning or loss of capitalization during the past few days or candles. Also you can try to spot the beginning of alts seasons by crosses between red and green lines: if the red lines crosses above the green one (because there was a continuous sequence of red columns above green ones), it means that, potentially, were are at the beginning of an alt season because people are accumulating.
Table of cases
===========
- if the green column is positive (BTCUSD is down)
- if the red column is positive (ALTBTC is up)
- bigger than the green column: ALTBTC buys are stronger than required by arbitrage and have counteracted and overcome the BTC fall.
- shorter than the green column: there have been some buys but not enough, so the BTCUSD fall has not been fully counteracted.
- if the red column is negative (ALTBTC is down): the loss is double: BTCUSD have lost value + ALTBTC is bleeding.
- If the green column is negative (BTCUSD is up)
- if the red column is negative (ALTBTC is down)
- bigger than the green column: ALTBTC sells are so strong that have counteracted the BTC increase in value, causing a loss of USD value.
- shorter than the green column: there have been sells but overall the ALTUSD price has increased.
- if the red column is positive (ALTBTC is up): the gain is double: BTCUSD has gain value + ALTBTC is also growing.
Indicator
Other alts compensated capitalization [Peregringlk]DISCLAIMER: I'm not a native English speaker, so let me know please about mistakes in my wording.
Introduction
==========
This indicator (the middle one in the image) shows how the "others altcoins" (all altcoins except coins with high capitalization) are adding own value to its capitalization by removing BTC price changes. By "own value" I mean USD value gaining by actual buys in BTC markets beyong arbitrage effects of BTC price changes.
The main idea is that, if bitcoin has increased is value by 20%, and the other altcoins has increased its capitalization by 30%, the chart will only plot an increased of 10%. In other words, it will show its increased capitalization measured in BTC (the combined altcoin/BTC market is uptrending). Its purpose is to try to identify altseasons. A bit more concisely, the graph will only grow when both USD and BTC capitalization are growing. If any of them are going down, the graph will go down as well.
Rationale
========
- Altseasons are characterized by an incresed in BTC value of almost every altcoin during some period of time, although not all at once, but distributed over the altseason. For example, in the crazy altseason of Dec17/Jan18, almost every (low capitalized) altcoin increased its BTC value by a minimum of +300%, some at the beginning of the season, some at the end.
- When this happens, BTC loss capitalization dominance, but this also can happen if BTC is downtrending while altcoins are being bought in BTC markets but its USD value doesn't change too much. This happens when altcoins are uptrending in BTC price, but there are actually no gain of USD value because the BTC gain in value is not enough to compensate the BTC fall in price. Since BTC is losing USD price, but altcoins are not, dominance falls. So, looking at BTC dominance is not enough to spot possible beginnings of altseasons, because of arbitrage of other effects.
- The "big altcoins" are removed from the counting because one single big capitalized altcoin that grows, let's say, a 20%, will have an observable effect on the total altcoin capitalization, even if the rest of the altcoins are stagnated in price. For example, at today's date (8th April 2020), Ethereum by itself has the 23.89% of the total altcoins capitalization. A +10% in Ethereum price will increase the total altcoin capitalization by a +2.38%. I wanted to remove that effect to focus on generalized price changes of all altcoins. Remember that there are only 9 big altcoins 9 coins representing the 71% of the alts capitalization, while there are exists more than 5000 altcoins in total.
- Another key factor is that I want to focus on what happens in alt/BTC markets, because almost every altcoin can be traded against BTC, and most of them can only be traded against BTC. However, big altcoins can usually be traded against USD or other alt coins or fiat currencies as well. Removing the big alts from the equation helps (just a bit) to simplify the interpretation of the chart because arbitrage effects of those "impactfull" alts are limited (although not removed, because arbitrage also happens cross-markets).
- There are situations where BTC price is going up, alts USD capitalization is going up as well, but alts BTC capitalization is going down because altcoins are being sold in BTC markets, it just happens that the speed of the selling is not high enough as to compensated the increased in BTC price. That makes the USD capitalization grows, while alts are really being dumped in BTC markets. I wanted to reflect that effect as well by making sure that the graph is growing only when both USD and BTC capitalization of alts are growing.
Interpretation
============
If you want, you can see this chart as if plotting the Other alts capitalization as if priced against a fictional coin FCOIN, that start by having a price of 1, that combines the up and downs of both BTC price and alts USD capitalization in a very conservative way: if FCOIN price goes up, means that the other alts are gained USD value but only when they have overcome BTC price changes. Otherwise, it goes down.
If this fictional FCOIN has went up during some days straight with a total gain of maybe, greater than 10%, we are maybe in front of the start of an altseason. Sometimes, maybe (it requires some more years to extract a theory out of here), it can be used as proxy of the BTC near future (trend changes or continuations): if this FCOIN goes up, while BTC is doing nothing relevant or even is going down, it could signal that "people" is getting prepared and a generalized altcoin accumulation process has started, because of a combined people's assumption that BTC will start to have an stable uptrend, or will continue the current trend soon. There's some matches in the past about that, but there are also false positives, as usual.
Additionally, four customizable EMAs are added to the script, by default 21, 50, 100 and 150.
Definitions
=========
- Let's call `altcap_btc` the altcoin capitalization in USD, divided by BTC price. In other words, `altcap_btc` is the capitalization in terms of BTC.
- Let's call `x` the BTC price change rate as `btc_price_current_candle / btc_price_previous_candle`. So, if BTC has grown a +20%, `x = 1.20`, and if BTC has gone down a -20%, `x = 0.80`.
- Let's call `y` the `altcap_btc` price change rate, calculated as before but for `altcap_btc`.
- For pure math equivalence, `x * y` is thus the USD capitalization change rate.
Calculation
=========
For plotting the graph, for each candle, I choose a change rate, and then I plot the total accumulated change rate as by `ch0 * ch1 * ch2 * .... * ch_today`, where each `chX` is the choosen change rate of each candle since the beginning of the chart. So, if the "alts compensated value" has grown yesterday +20% and today's -10%, `1.20 * 0.9 = 1.08`, which means that in two days the compensated value has grown an 8% in total.
- If `x * y > 1` (USD cap is growing), I take `y` as change rate (alt/btc change rate).
- If both `x` and `y` are `> 1`, then the graph grows because I'm taking `y`.
- If `x > 1` and `y < 1`, the graph goes down because I'm taking `y`, reflecting the BTC markets are dumping.
- If `x < 1` and `y > 1`, the graph goes up because I'm taking `y`, reflecting the BTC markets are pumping so much that it overcomes the btc fall.
- `x < 1` and `y < 1` is impossible here because `x * y` must be `> 1` by precondition.
- If `x * y < 1` (USD cap is going down), I take `y` or `x * y` depending on the individual change rates:
- If `x` and `y` go in different directions (one up and the other down), I take `x * y` to reflect that USD capitalization has gone down. I don't take `y` here because it could be `> 1`, and I don't want to make the graph grow if alts are lossing USD value. Also, if `y < 1` and I take `y` the graph will go down faster than USD capitalization and I want to show that "alts compensated value is gown down slower than BTC because some boughts are happening". I don't take `x` either here for the same reasons.
- If both `x` and `y` are `< 1`, I take `y`, because otherwise the graph would be less than 0.000001 today after two years of bleeding, making literally impossible to see if alts "grow tomorrow".
- `x > 1` and `y > 1` is impossible here because `x * y` must be `< 1` by precondition. Indicator
Indicator
