Blockchain Fundamentals: Liquidity Cycle MomentumLiquidity Cycle Momentum Indicator
Overview:
This indicator analyzes global liquidity trends by calculating a unique Liquidity Index and measuring its year-over-year (YoY) percentage change. It then applies a momentum oscillator to the YoY change, providing insights into the cyclical momentum of liquidity. The indicator incorporates a limited historical data workaround to ensure accurate calculations even when the chart’s history is short.
Features Breakdown:
1. Limited Historical Data Workaround
Function: The limit(length) function adjusts the lookback period when there isn’t enough historical data (i.e., near the beginning of the chart), ensuring that calculations do not break due to insufficient data.
2. Global Liquidity Calculation
Data Sources:
TVC:CN10Y (10-year yield from China)
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index)
ECONOMICS:USCBBS (US Central Bank Balance Sheet)
FRED:JPNASSETS (Japanese assets)
ECONOMICS:CNCBBS (Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet)
FRED:ECBASSETSW (ECB assets)
Calculation Methodology:
A ratio is computed (cn10y / dxy) to adjust for currency influences.
The Liquidity Index is then derived by multiplying this ratio with the sum of the other liquidity components.
3. Year-over-Year (YoY) Percent Change
Computation:
The indicator determines the number of bars that approximately represent one year.
It then compares the current Liquidity Index to its value one year ago, calculating the YoY percentage change.
4. Momentum Oscillator on YoY Change
Oscillator Components:
1. Calculated using the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) applied to the YoY percent change with a user-defined momentum length.
2. A weighted moving average (WMA) that smooths the momentum signal.
3. Overbought and Oversold zones
Signal Generation:
Buy Signal: Triggered when the momentum crosses upward from an oversold condition, suggesting a potential upward shift in liquidity momentum.
Sell Signal: Triggered when crosses below an overbought condition, indicating potential downward momentum.
State Management:
The indicator maintains a state variable to avoid repeated signals, ensuring that a new buy or sell signal is only generated when there’s a clear change in momentum.
5. Visual Presentation and Alerts
Plots:
The oscillator value and signalline are plotted for visual analysis.
Overbought and oversold levels are marked with dashed horizontal lines.
Signal Markers:
Buy and sell signals are marked with green and maroon circles, respectively.
Background Coloration:
Optionally, the chart’s background bars are colored (yellow for buy signals and fuchsia for sell signals) to enhance visual cues when signals are triggered.
Conclusion
In summary, the Liquidity Cycle Momentum Indicator provides a robust framework to analyze liquidity trends by combining global liquidity data, YoY changes, and momentum oscillation. This makes it an effective tool for traders and analysts looking to identify cyclical shifts in liquidity conditions and potential turning points in the market.
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