Indicator
Bull / Bear Market RegimeBull / Bear Market Regime
Instructions:
- A simple risk on or risk off indicator based on CBOE's Implied Correlation and VIX to highlight and indicate Bull / Bear Markets. To be used with the S&P500 index as that's the source from where the CBOE calculates and measures implied volatility & implied correlation. Can also be used with the other indices such as: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, & Nasdaq100, & Index ETF's such as DIA, SPY, QQQ, etc.
- Know the active regime, see the larger picture using the Daily or Weekly view, and visualize the current "Risk On (Bull) or Risk Off (Bear)" environment.
Description:
- Risk On and Risk Off simplified & visualized. Know if we are in a RISK ON or RISK OFF environment (Bull or Bear Market). (Absolute bottoms and tops will occur BEFORE a Risk On (Bull Market) or Risk Off (Bear Market) environment is confirmed!) This indicator is not meant to bottom tick or uptick market price action, but to show the active regime.
- Green: Bull Market, Risk On, low volatility, and low risk.
- Red: Bear Market, Risk Off, high volatility, and higher risk.
Buy & Sell Indicators (DAILY time frame)
- Nothing is 100% guaranteed! Can be used for short to medium term trades at the users discretion in BEAR MARKETS!!
- These signals are meant to be used during a RISK OFF / BEAR MARKET environment that tends to be accompanied with high volatility. A Risk on / Bull Market environment tends to have low volatility and endless rallies, so the signals will differ and in most instances not apply for Bull market / Risk on regime.
- The SELL signal will more often than not signal that a pullback is near in a BULL market and that a BMR-Bear Market Rally is almost over in a BEAR market.
- The BUY signal will have far more accuracy in a BEAR market-high volatility environment and can Identify short-term and major bottoms.
Always use proper sizing and risk management!
Indicator
TARVIS Labs - Bitcoin Macro Bottom/Top SignalsSCRIPT DESCRIPTION
This is a script specifically written to help provide indicators from a macro view. This script is best run on the 1 day interval on Bitstamp's $BTCUSD chart. It helps indicate when to accumulate bitcoin, and when its in a bull run when there are local tops, strong top warnings, and a signal to exit a bull run. This is described further below.
If you don't have interest in trading on the way to the top I suggest turning off the following indicators in the settings of the indicator:
- Opportunity To Buy Back In Indicator
- Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator
ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - LIGHT GREEN
Description
When we look at the history of Bitcoin every bottom has crossed below the 100 week EMA. Once it does its accompanied by hash ribbon cross with miner capitulation. After that is the prime time to accumulate as theres a clearer signal the bottom is in. Specifically, a signal to look for is the 14 day MACD/signal cross and the 14 day MACD continuing to stay above the signal until the price returns above the 100 week EMA. This is prime accumulation territory.
Strategy for Usage
A good strategy to use when accumulating the bottom is dollar-cost averaging over a 30 day period. The accumulation zone can last longer than 30 days but 30 days is a good range of time to DCA.
STRONG BUY IN ACCUMULATION ZONE INDICATOR - DARK GREEN
Description
We can add to the bottoming signal by looking for post-downtrend reversals inside the bottoming signal. We do this by using a 9/19 daily cross.
Strategy for Usage
These post-downtrend reversals can potentially provide better targeted days for accumulation than the broader bottoming signal and can be used to add more on that day than on an average day for the dollar cost average strategy. Say for example, use 1/3 of funds on these days rather than 1/30th.
OPPORTUNITY TO BUY BACK IN INDICATOR - BLUE
Description
When the 1d 18 EMA > 1d 63 EMA and the 12/52 1d crosses. These together provide good buy opportunities to buy bitcoin.
Strategy for Usage
If you happen to find yourself out of the market from your own TA or a trade, this signal can provide a buy opportunity to reenter the market if you're out of it.
BULL RUN LOCAL TOP INDICATOR - ORANGE
Description
We will similarly use the 100 week EMA to determine trend reversal into a bull run. When we see the 100 week EMA uptrending, we can begin to look for local tops using the 9/19 daily MACD/signal bearish cross along with the 12 EMA having a negative slope, which could be the beginning signal for a local top.
Strategy for Usage
This is a rather light indicator, but can be used in tandem with your own technical analysis to determine if you want to reenter after you exit from its signal.
LOCAL TOP NEAR BULL RUN TOP INDICATOR - RED
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend we can look for significant loss of momentum in order to determine if a local top is in near a bull run top. Similar to the Bull Run Local Top Indicator, this strategy uses a MACD/signal cross but instead uses the 30/65 day EMAs.
Strategy for Usage
Ideally the right strategy to use here is to exit the market when this indicator starts. When the indicator ends if the "End of Bull Run Indicator" is not showing on the chart you can buy back into the market.
TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a very strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.
Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.
TOP IS LIKELY IN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in a strong uptrend and the 9/19 weekly MACD/signal bearish cross occurs, and the 63 EMA begins to downtrend.
Strategy for Usage
This signal typically accompanies the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" therefore if you're following the strategy you would likely already be out of the market, but if you're not and this signal fires its a strong signal the top is in and we're likely going to start seeing a strong retrace. This is typically right before we see the "End of Bull Run Indicator". There is only one occurrence where it wasn't followed by a large drop & the "End of Bull Run Indicator" and that was in the 2017 bull run where there were many strong retracements post local top. The likelihood we see that again is low, but if it were to happen you can buy back into the market when the "Top is Likely In Indicator" and the "Local Top Near Bull Run Top Indicator" are not firing.
END OF BULL RUN INDICATOR
Description
When the 100 week EMA is in an uptrend and the 1d 18 EMA crosses the 1d 63 EMA.
Strategy for Usage
When the 100 week EMA is a strong uptrend and the 18/63 cross occurs the top is very likely in. It has occurred in every bull run top leading to the bear market.
Indicator
Short Selling EMA Cross (By Coinrule)BINANCE:AVAXUSDT
This short selling script works best in periods of downtrends and general bearish market conditions, with the ultimate goal to sell as the the price decreases further and buy back before a rebound.
This script can work well on coins you are planning to hodl for long-term and works especially well whilst using an automated bot that can execute your trades for you. It allows you to hedge your investment by allocating a % of your coins to trade with, whilst not risking your entire holding. This mitigates unrealised losses from hodling as it provides additional cash from the profits made. You can then choose to to hodl this cash, or use it to reinvest when the market reaches attractive buying levels.
Entry
The exponential moving average ( EMA ) 20 and EMA 50 have been used for the variables determining the entry to the short. EMAs can operate better than simple moving averages due to the additional weighting placed on the most recent data points, whereas simple moving averages weight all the data the same. This means that price is tracked more closely and the most recent volatile moves can be captured and exploited more efficiently using EMAs.
Our backtesting data revealed that the most profitable timeframe was the 30-minute timeframe, this also enabled a good frequency of trades and high profitability.
A fast (shorter term) exponential moving average , in this strategy the EMA 20, crossing under a slow (longer term) moving average, in this example the EMA 50, signals the price of an asset has started to trend to the downside, as the most recent data signals price is declining compared to earlier data. The entry acts on this principle and executes when the EMA 20 crosses under the EMA 50.
Enter Short: EMA 20 crosses under EMA 50.
Exit
This script utilises a take profit and stop loss for the exit. The take profit is set at -8% and the stop loss is set at +16% from the entry price. This would normally be a poor trade due to the risk:reward equalling 0.5. However, when looking at the backtesting data, the high profitability of the strategy (93.33%) leads to increased confidence and showcases the high probability of success according to historical data.
The take profit (-8%) and the stop loss (+16%) of the strategy are widely placed to ensure the move is captured without being stopped out due to relief rallies. The stop loss also plays a role of mitigating losses and minimising risk of being stuck in a short position once there has been a fundamental trend reversal and the market has become bullish .
Exit Short: -8% price decrease from entry price.
OR
Exit Short: +16% price increase from entry price.
Tip: Research what coins have consistent and large token unlocks / highly inflationary tokenomics, and target these during bear markets to short as they will most likely have substantial selling pressure that outweighs demand - leading to declining prices.
The strategy assumes each order is using 30% of the available coins to make the results more realistic and to simulate you only ran this strategy on 30% of your holdings. A trading fee of 0.1% is also taken into account and is aligned to the base fee applied on Binance.
The backtesting data was recorded from December 1st 2021, just as the market was beginning its downtrend. We therefore recommend analysing the market conditions prior to utilising this strategy as it operates best on weak coins during downtrends and bearish conditions. Strategy
Indicator
