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Equity Risk Indicator - BCA-Style Proxy
Equity Risk Indicator – Multi-Factor Composite (ERI Proxy)
Overview
The Equity Risk Indicator (ERI) is a standardized, equally-weighted composite that measures how stretched the US equity market is across four independent dimensions: price momentum, investor sentiment, speculative futures positioning, and deviation from the long-term trend. The concept is inspired by institutional risk aggregation frameworks: instead of relying on a single overbought/oversold metric, several uncorrelated risk factors are normalized via z-scores and combined into one oscillator.
Readings above +1 standard deviation have historically clustered near major market tops (2000, 2007, 2018, 2021), while readings below −1 have coincided with washed-out, contrarian buying zones. The indicator is designed as a regime and risk-management tool, not as a standalone entry signal.
Methodology
Each component is transformed into a rolling z-score (default lookback: 500 bars), then all active components are equally weighted, and the resulting composite is re-standardized and smoothed with an EMA. This double standardization keeps the output stable around a zero mean with interpretable ±1 / ±2 SD bands.
1. Composite Momentum Equally-weighted z-scores of the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month rate of change. Captures how extended price momentum is relative to its own history across multiple horizons.
2. Sentiment (inverted) Z-scores of the volatility index (default: TVC:VIX) and the put/call ratio (default: USI:PCA), both inverted. Low implied volatility combined with low put demand signals complacency — historically a late-cycle risk condition.
3. Futures Positioning (COT) Noncommercial net long positions (Legacy report, Long minus Short) for E-mini S&P 500 futures, retrieved via the official PulseWire/LibraryCOT. Elevated speculative net-long positioning indicates crowding. CFTC contract code is configurable (default: 13874A). Note: COT data is weekly, so this component updates in steps on daily charts.
4. Trend Deviation (earnings-expectations proxy) Deviation of the log price from its long-term linear regression (default: ~3 years). When price trades far above its structural trend, aggressive growth expectations are priced in — serving as a proxy for forward earnings optimism, which is not directly available as a data feed.
Each component can be toggled on/off individually. When a data source fails to load, the composite automatically re-weights across the remaining components.
How to Read It
Above +1 SD (red zone): Elevated risk. Momentum, sentiment, positioning, and/or trend extension are stretched simultaneously. Historically associated with topping conditions — consider tightening risk, reducing leverage, or hedging.
Rollover below +1 SD (circle markers): The indicator crossing back under +1 after an overheated reading has historically appeared near cycle peaks. This is the pattern highlighted by the circle markers at the top of the pane.
Around 0 (mean): Neutral regime.
Below −1 SD (green zone): Depressed risk conditions — panic sentiment, washed-out momentum, light positioning. Historically a contrarian accumulation zone.
The data window additionally displays all four component z-scores separately, so you can see at any bar which factor is driving the composite.
Settings
Components: Toggle Momentum, Sentiment, COT Positioning, and Trend Deviation independently
Symbols: Volatility index, put/call ratio, and CFTC contract code are fully configurable
Z-Score Lookback: Standardization window (default 500 bars ≈ 2 years; increase to 750–1000 for a smoother, slower profile)
Trend Lookback: Regression window for the trend-deviation component (default 756 bars ≈ 3 years)
Smoothing: EMA applied to the final composite (default 10)
Alerts
ERI crosses above +1 SD (higher-risk regime)
ERI rolls over below +1 SD (potential peak signal)
ERI crosses below −1 SD (lower-risk / contrarian zone)
Recommended Use
Designed for the daily timeframe on broad US equity indices (SPX, ES1!, SPY). It works best as a macro overlay: as a filter for trend-following systems, as a position-sizing input, or as a hedging trigger. Because all components are standardized, the framework also transfers to other liquid indices — adjust the CFTC code and sentiment symbols accordingly.
Limitations
Earnings revisions and forward EPS growth are not available as PulseWire data feeds; the trend-deviation component serves as a structural proxy for these inputs. COT data is published weekly with a lag. As with any standardized oscillator, extreme readings can persist longer than expected — this tool measures risk conditions, it does not time reversals on its own.
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Overview
The Equity Risk Indicator (ERI) is a standardized, equally-weighted composite that measures how stretched the US equity market is across four independent dimensions: price momentum, investor sentiment, speculative futures positioning, and deviation from the long-term trend. The concept is inspired by institutional risk aggregation frameworks: instead of relying on a single overbought/oversold metric, several uncorrelated risk factors are normalized via z-scores and combined into one oscillator.
Readings above +1 standard deviation have historically clustered near major market tops (2000, 2007, 2018, 2021), while readings below −1 have coincided with washed-out, contrarian buying zones. The indicator is designed as a regime and risk-management tool, not as a standalone entry signal.
Methodology
Each component is transformed into a rolling z-score (default lookback: 500 bars), then all active components are equally weighted, and the resulting composite is re-standardized and smoothed with an EMA. This double standardization keeps the output stable around a zero mean with interpretable ±1 / ±2 SD bands.
1. Composite Momentum Equally-weighted z-scores of the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month rate of change. Captures how extended price momentum is relative to its own history across multiple horizons.
2. Sentiment (inverted) Z-scores of the volatility index (default: TVC:VIX) and the put/call ratio (default: USI:PCA), both inverted. Low implied volatility combined with low put demand signals complacency — historically a late-cycle risk condition.
3. Futures Positioning (COT) Noncommercial net long positions (Legacy report, Long minus Short) for E-mini S&P 500 futures, retrieved via the official PulseWire/LibraryCOT. Elevated speculative net-long positioning indicates crowding. CFTC contract code is configurable (default: 13874A). Note: COT data is weekly, so this component updates in steps on daily charts.
4. Trend Deviation (earnings-expectations proxy) Deviation of the log price from its long-term linear regression (default: ~3 years). When price trades far above its structural trend, aggressive growth expectations are priced in — serving as a proxy for forward earnings optimism, which is not directly available as a data feed.
Each component can be toggled on/off individually. When a data source fails to load, the composite automatically re-weights across the remaining components.
How to Read It
Above +1 SD (red zone): Elevated risk. Momentum, sentiment, positioning, and/or trend extension are stretched simultaneously. Historically associated with topping conditions — consider tightening risk, reducing leverage, or hedging.
Rollover below +1 SD (circle markers): The indicator crossing back under +1 after an overheated reading has historically appeared near cycle peaks. This is the pattern highlighted by the circle markers at the top of the pane.
Around 0 (mean): Neutral regime.
Below −1 SD (green zone): Depressed risk conditions — panic sentiment, washed-out momentum, light positioning. Historically a contrarian accumulation zone.
The data window additionally displays all four component z-scores separately, so you can see at any bar which factor is driving the composite.
Settings
Components: Toggle Momentum, Sentiment, COT Positioning, and Trend Deviation independently
Symbols: Volatility index, put/call ratio, and CFTC contract code are fully configurable
Z-Score Lookback: Standardization window (default 500 bars ≈ 2 years; increase to 750–1000 for a smoother, slower profile)
Trend Lookback: Regression window for the trend-deviation component (default 756 bars ≈ 3 years)
Smoothing: EMA applied to the final composite (default 10)
Alerts
ERI crosses above +1 SD (higher-risk regime)
ERI rolls over below +1 SD (potential peak signal)
ERI crosses below −1 SD (lower-risk / contrarian zone)
Recommended Use
Designed for the daily timeframe on broad US equity indices (SPX, ES1!, SPY). It works best as a macro overlay: as a filter for trend-following systems, as a position-sizing input, or as a hedging trigger. Because all components are standardized, the framework also transfers to other liquid indices — adjust the CFTC code and sentiment symbols accordingly.
Limitations
Earnings revisions and forward EPS growth are not available as PulseWire data feeds; the trend-deviation component serves as a structural proxy for these inputs. COT data is published weekly with a lag. As with any standardized oscillator, extreme readings can persist longer than expected — this tool measures risk conditions, it does not time reversals on its own.
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Open-source script
In true PulseWire spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by PulseWire. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Open-source script
In true PulseWire spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by PulseWire. Read more in the Terms of Use.