VNET — VNET Group, Inc.
Thesis: A levered residual claim on Chinese wholesale AIDC unit economics. The build is real and largely contracted; the question is whether incremental EBITDA reaches common equity or is absorbed by debt and accreting mezzanine. P / FV (prob-wtd): 0.65x · Spot: $7.46 · Base FV: $10.60 · Reviewed: 2026-08-11 · Call: Torque sleeve, fat left tail
Prob-weighted
Year-end
Bear $2.20 (−71%)
Base $10.60 (+42%)
Bull $19.55 (+162%)
Prob-wtd $11.42 (+53%)
Today $7.47
Key Drivers
Wholesale revenue per utilised MW annualises to RMB 6.47m from Q1-26 (RMB 1,060m on ~655MW average utilised). That single figure, multiplied by delivered-and-utilised megawatts, is roughly three-quarters of the equity story.
The capacity path follows from capex arithmetic rather than ambition. At RMB 10–12bn a year and a China build cost near RMB 28m/MW, with roughly 80% of capex going to new megawatts, VNET adds about 300–390MW a year. Base case reaches ~2,050MW in service by 2030 at 83% utilisation. That is not a heroic assumption — 907MW is already in service and 516MW is already under construction.
Order intake supports it: 517MW of new wholesale orders year-to-date 2026, of which 510MW came from a single leading internet customer in the Greater Beijing Area. Retail is the ballast — 50,170 cabinets throwing off roughly RMB 1.18bn of EBITDA a year, growing at low single digits, neither helping nor hurting much.
The offsetting driver is the funding stack. Every scenario in this build carries its own bridge of capex, interest, tax, EBITDA and REIT proceeds, because the difference between bear and base is mostly the size of the claims that sit in front of common in 2030: RMB 41.0bn in the bear versus RMB 35.4bn in the base and RMB 29.8bn in the bull. REIT recycling is the release valve — two projects listed in March 2026 established the model — and whether it scales to RMB 2bn+ a year is the most consequential financing question on the name.
Thesis: A levered residual claim on Chinese wholesale AIDC unit economics. The build is real and largely contracted; the question is whether incremental EBITDA reaches common equity or is absorbed by debt and accreting mezzanine. P / FV (prob-wtd): 0.65x · Spot: $7.46 · Base FV: $10.60 · Reviewed: 2026-08-11 · Call: Torque sleeve, fat left tail
Prob-weighted
Year-end
Bear $2.20 (−71%)
Base $10.60 (+42%)
Bull $19.55 (+162%)
Prob-wtd $11.42 (+53%)
Today $7.47
Key Drivers
Wholesale revenue per utilised MW annualises to RMB 6.47m from Q1-26 (RMB 1,060m on ~655MW average utilised). That single figure, multiplied by delivered-and-utilised megawatts, is roughly three-quarters of the equity story.
The capacity path follows from capex arithmetic rather than ambition. At RMB 10–12bn a year and a China build cost near RMB 28m/MW, with roughly 80% of capex going to new megawatts, VNET adds about 300–390MW a year. Base case reaches ~2,050MW in service by 2030 at 83% utilisation. That is not a heroic assumption — 907MW is already in service and 516MW is already under construction.
Order intake supports it: 517MW of new wholesale orders year-to-date 2026, of which 510MW came from a single leading internet customer in the Greater Beijing Area. Retail is the ballast — 50,170 cabinets throwing off roughly RMB 1.18bn of EBITDA a year, growing at low single digits, neither helping nor hurting much.
The offsetting driver is the funding stack. Every scenario in this build carries its own bridge of capex, interest, tax, EBITDA and REIT proceeds, because the difference between bear and base is mostly the size of the claims that sit in front of common in 2030: RMB 41.0bn in the bear versus RMB 35.4bn in the base and RMB 29.8bn in the bull. REIT recycling is the release valve — two projects listed in March 2026 established the model — and whether it scales to RMB 2bn+ a year is the most consequential financing question on the name.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by PulseWire. Read more in the Terms of Use.